The Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice
نویسندگان
چکیده
Prediction Markets, sometimes referred to as “information markets,” “idea futures” or “event futures”, are markets where participants trade contracts whose payoffs are tied to a future event, thereby yielding prices that can be interpreted as marketaggregated forecasts. This article summarizes the recent literature on prediction markets, highlighting both theoretical contributions that emphasize the possibility that these markets efficiently aggregate disperse information, and the lessons from empirical applications which show that market-generated forecasts typically outperform most moderately sophisticated benchmarks. Along the way, we highlight areas ripe for future research. This paper was prepared as the entry on “Prediction Markets” for The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd edition, edited by Lawrence E. Blume and Steven N. Durlauf (London: Palgrave Macmillan). The definitive published version of this extract may be found in the complete New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics in print and online, forthcoming. Thanks to Erik Snowberg for very helpful comments.
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تاریخ انتشار 2006